Comparing serial and current liver stiffness measurements to predict decompensation in compensated advanced chronic liver disease patients.

INTRODUCTION: The utility of serial liver stiffness measurements (LSM) to predict decompensation in compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) patients remains unclear. We aimed to validate whether comparing serial LSM is superior to using the current LSM to predict liver-related events (LRE) in cACLD patients. METHODS: In this retrospective analysis of an international registry, cACLD patients with serial LSM were followed up until index LRE. We compared the performance of both the dynamic LSM changes and the current LSM (LSMc ) in predicting LRE using Cox-regression analysis, considering time zero of follow-up as the date of LSMc. RESULT: 480 cACLD patients with serial LSM were included from 5 countries. The commonest etiology of cACLD was viral (53%) and MASLD (34%). Over a median follow-up of 68 (45-92) months, 32% experienced LSM decrease to levels below 10kPa (resolved-cACLD) and 5.8% experienced LRE. Resolved-cACLD were more likely to be non-diabetic and had better liver function. While a higher value of the current LSM (LSMc) was associated with higher LREs, LSM changes over time (LSM slope) were not associated with LRE. In multivariable Cox regression, both prior LSM and LSM slope did not add predictive value to LSMc. CONCLUSION: Once the current LSM is known, previous LSM values do not add to the prediction of LREs in cACLD patients.

The Impact of Colonization by Multi Drug Resistant Bacteria on Graft Survival, Risk of Infection, and Mortality in Recipients of Solid Organ Transplant: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The Global increase in colonization by multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacteria poses a significant concern. The precise impact of MDR colonization in solid organ transplant recipients (SOTR) remains not well established. OBJECTIVES: Assess the impact of MDR colonization on SOTR's mortality, infection, or graft-loss. METHODS: . DATA SOURCE: Data from PROSPERO, OVID Medline, Ovid EMBASE, Wiley Cochrane Library, ProQuest Dissertations, Theses Global, and SCOPUS, were systematically reviewed spanning from inception until March 20, 2023. The study protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42022290011) and followed the PRISMA guidelines. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA, PARTICIPANTS, INTERVENTIONS, AND ASSESSMENT OF RISK OF BIAS: Cohorts and case-control studies that reported on adult SOTR colonized by Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus-aureus (MRSA), Vancomycin-resistant Enterococci (VRE), Extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) or carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE), or MDR-Pseudomonas, and compared to non-colonized, were included. Two reviewers assessed eligibility, conducted risk of bias evaluation using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale, and rated certainty of evidence using the GRADE approach. METHODS OF DATA SYNTHESIS: We employed RevMan for a meta-analysis using random-effects models to compute pooled odds-ratios (OR) and 95% confidence-intervals (CI). Statistical heterogeneity was determined using the I2 statistic. RESULTS: 15,202 SOTR (33 cohort, 6 case-control studies) were included, where Liver transplant and VRE colonization (25 and 14 studies) were predominant. MDR colonization significantly increased post-transplant one-year mortality (OR= 2.35, 95%CI 1.63-3.38) and mixed-infections (OR=10.74, 95%CI 7.56-12.26) across transplant types (p<0.001 and I2= 58%), but no detected impact on graft-loss (p=0.41, I2= 0%). Subgroup analysis indicated a higher association between CRE or ESBL colonization with outcomes (CRE: death OR=3.94, mixed-infections OR=24.8; ESBL: mixed-infections OR=10.3, no mortality data) compared to MRSA (Death: OR=2.25; Mixed-infection: OR=7.75) or VRE colonization (Death: p=0.20, Mixed-infections: OR=5.71). CONCLUSIONS: MDR colonization in SOTR, particularly CRE, is associated with increased mortality. Despite the low certainty of evidence, actions for preventing MDR colonization in transplant candidates are warranted.

Serum aryl hydrocarbon receptor activity is associated with survival in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) have an altered fecal metabolome, including reduced microbiota-derived tryptophan metabolites, which function as ligands for aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR). The aim of this study was to assess serum AhR ligand activity in patients with AH. APPROACH AND RESULTS: The study included 74 controls without AUD, 97 patients with AUD, and 330 patients with AH from 2 different multicenter cohorts (InTeam: 134, AlcHepNet: 196). Serum AhR activity was evaluated using an AhR reporter assay with HepG2-Lucia cells incubated with serum for 24 hours. Serum AhR activity was significantly higher in patients with AH compared with both controls (1.59 vs. 0.96-fold change, p < 0.001) and patients with AUD (1.59 vs. 0.93, p < 0.001). In both AH cohorts, patients with AhR activity ≥ 2.09 had significantly lower cumulative survival rates at 30, 60, 90, and 180 days compared to those with AhR activity < 2.09. When serum AhR activity was used to further stratify patients with severe AH, the cumulative 30, 60, 90, and 180-day survival rates for patients with severe AH and the AhR activity ≥ 2.09 group were all significantly lower than those with an AhR activity < 2.09 group. CONCLUSIONS: Serum AhR activity was significantly higher in patients with AH compared with controls and individuals with AUD, and this increased activity was associated with higher mortality. Consequently, serum AhR activity holds potential as a prognostic marker.

Full adherence to cirrhosis quality indicators is associated with lower mortality in acute variceal bleeding: Nationwide audit.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a major complication in patients with cirrhosis. Using a nationwide AVB audit, we performed a nested cohort study to determine whether full adherence to the AVB quality indicator (QI) improves clinical outcomes in patients with cirrhosis and AVB. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We assessed real-world adherence to AVB QI among patients with cirrhosis admitted for AVB in all public hospitals in Singapore between January 2015 and December 2020. Full adherence was considered when all 5 QIs were fulfilled: prophylactic antibiotics, vasoactive agents, timely endoscopy, endoscopic hemostasis during index endoscopy, and nonselective beta-blockers after AVB. We compare 6-week mortality between the full adherence and suboptimal adherence groups using a propensity-matched cohort.A total of 989 patients with AVB were included. Full adherence to all AVB QI was suboptimal (56.5%). Analysis of the propensity-matched cohort with comparable baseline characteristics showed that full adherence was associated with a lower risk of early infection (20.0% vs. 26.9%), early rebleeding (5.2% vs. 10.2%), and mortality at 6 weeks (8.2% vs. 19.7%) and 1 year (21.3% vs. 35.4%) ( p <0.05 for all). While full adherence was associated with a lower 6-week mortality regardless of the MELD score, nonadherence was associated with a higher 6-week mortality despite a lower predicted risk of 6-week mortality. Despite high adherence to the recommended process measures, patients with CTP-C remain at a higher risk of rebleeding, 6-week and 1-year mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Full adherence to the AVB QI should be the target for quality improvement in patients with cirrhosis.

Enhancing ACLF prediction by integrating sarcopenia assessment and frailty in liver transplant candidates on the waiting list.

Background & Aims: Malnutrition, sarcopenia, and frailty are prevalent in cirrhosis. We aimed to assess the correlation between assessment tools for malnutrition, sarcopenia, and frailty in patients on the liver transplant (LT) waiting list (WL), and to identify a predictive model for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) development. Methods: This prospective single-center study enrolled consecutive patients with cirrhosis on the WL for LT (May 2019-November 2021). Assessments included subjective global assessment, CT body composition, skeletal muscle index (SMI), ultrasound thigh muscle thickness, sarcopenia HIBA score, liver frailty index (LFI), hand grip strength, and 6-minute walk test at enrollment. Correlations were analyzed using Pearson's correlation. Competing risk regression analysis was used to assess the predictive ability of the liver- and functional physiological reserve-related variables for ACLF. Results: A total of 132 patients, predominantly with decompensated cirrhosis (87%), were included. Our study revealed a high prevalence of malnutrition (61%), sarcopenia (61%), visceral obesity (20%), sarcopenic visceral obesity (17%), and frailty (10%) among participants. Correlations between the assessment tools for sarcopenia and frailty were poor. Sarcopenia by SMI remained prevalent when frailty assessments were not usable. After a median follow-up of 10 months, 39% of the patients developed ACLF on WL, while 28% experienced dropouts without ACLF. Multivariate analysis identified MELD-Na, SMI, and LFI as independent predictors of ACLF on the WL. The predictive model MELD-Na-sarcopenia-LFI had a C-statistic of 0.85. Conclusions: The poor correlation between sarcopenia assessment tools and frailty underscores the importance of a comprehensive evaluation. The SMI, LFI, and MELD-Na independently predicted ACLF development in WL. These findings enhance our understanding of the relationship between sarcopenia, frailty, and ACLF in patients awaiting LT, emphasizing the need for early detection and intervention to improve WL outcomes. Impact and implications: The relationship between sarcopenia and frailty assessment tools, as well as their ability to predict acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in patients on the liver transplant (LT) waiting list (WL), remains poorly understood. Existing objective frailty screening tests have limitations when applied to critically ill patients. The correlation between sarcopenia and frailty assessment tools was weak, suggesting that they may capture different phenotypes. Sarcopenia assessed by skeletal muscle index, frailty evaluated using the liver frailty index, and the model for end-stage liver disease-Na score independently predicted the development of ACLF in patients on the WL. Our findings support the integration of liver frailty index and skeletal muscle index assessments at the time of inclusion on the WL for LT. This combined approach allows for the identification of a specific patient subgroup with an increased susceptibility to ACLF, underscoring the importance of early implementation of targeted treatment strategies to improve outcomes for patients awaiting LT.

Heterogeneity of treatment response to beta-blockers in the treatment of portal hypertension: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that a relevant proportion of patients do not respond to nonselective beta-blockers (NSBB)s, which raises questions regarding the need for individualized therapy. The existence of potential heterogeneity in the treatment response can be assessed using the variability ratio (VR) of the outcome measurement (in this case, HVPG) between the treated and placebo groups. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials to assess the potential heterogeneity in the portal pressure response to NSBBs. METHODS: After a systematic search, we quantified the heterogeneity of treatment response with the VR between the treatment and control groups, with VR > 1 indicating potential heterogeneity. We used a similar approach to compare carvedilol with propranolol and statins with placebo. RESULTS: We identified 18 studies that included 965 patients. A comparison between beta-blockers and placebo showed a pooled VR of 0.99 (95% CI:0.87-1.14), which suggests a homogeneous HVPG response to NSBB at the individual patient level (ie, no evidence to support that some patients responded to beta-blockers and others did not). For the comparison between carvedilol and propranolol, pooled VR was 0.97 (95% CI 0.82-1.14), suggesting that carvedilol achieves a greater average response (rather than an increase in the proportion of responders). There was no evidence of a heterogeneous response to statins. CONCLUSION: Our analysis did not support the existence of a heterogeneous patient-by-patient response to NSBBs in cirrhosis. These findings challenge the concept of personalized therapy based on portal pressure response and indicate that routine portal pressure measurement may not be necessary to guide NSBB therapy.

Evolution of spontaneous portosystemic shunts over time and following aetiological intervention in patients with cirrhosis.

Background & Aims: Spontaneous portosystemic shunts (SPSS) develop frequently in cirrhosis. Changes over time and the effect of aetiological interventions on SPSS are unknown, so we aimed to explore the effect of these variables on SPSS evolution. Methods: Patients with cirrhosis from the Baveno VI-SPSS cohort were selected provided a follow-up abdominal CT or MRI scan was available. Clinical and laboratory data were collected at baseline and follow-up. Imaging tests were reviewed to evaluate changes in the presence and size of SPSS (large (L)-SPSS was ≥8 mm) over time. Regarding alcohol- or HCV-related cirrhosis, two populations were defined: cured patients (abstinent from alcohol or successful HCV therapy), and non-cured patients. Results: A total of 617 patients were included. At baseline SPSS distribution was 22% L-SPSS, 30% small (S)-SPSS, and 48% without (W)-SPSS. During follow-up (median follow-up of 63 months), SPSS distribution worsened: L-SPSS 26%, S-SPSS 32%, and W-SPSS 42% (p <0.001). Patients with worse liver function during follow-up showed a simultaneous aggravation in SPSS distribution. Non-cured patients (n = 191) experienced a significant worsening in liver function, more episodes of liver decompensation and lower transplant-free survival compared to cured patients (n = 191). However, no differences were observed regarding SPSS distribution at inclusion and at follow-up, with both groups showing a trend to worsening. Total shunt diameter increased more in non-cured (52%) than in cured patients (28%). However, total shunt area (TSA) significantly increased only in non-cured patients (74 to 122 mm2, p <0.001). Conclusions: The presence of SPSS in cirrhosis increases over time and parallels liver function deterioration. Aetiological intervention in these patients reduces liver-related complications, but SPSS persist although progression is decreased. Impact and implications: There is no information regarding the evolution of spontaneous portosystemic shunts (SPSS) during the course of cirrhosis, and especially after disease regression with aetiological interventions, such as HCV treatment with direct-acting antivirals or alcohol abstinence. These results are relevant for clinicians dealing with patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension because they have important implications for the management of cirrhosis with SPSS after disease regression. From a practical point of view, physicians should be aware that in advanced cirrhosis with portal hypertension, after aetiological intervention, SPSS mostly persist despite liver function improvement, and complications related to SPSS may still develop.

AGA Clinical Practice Update on the Use of Vasoactive Drugs and Intravenous Albumin in Cirrhosis: Expert Review.

DESCRIPTION: Cirrhosis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States and worldwide. It consists of compensated, decompensated, and further decompensated stages; median survival is more than 15 years, 2 years, and 9 months for each stage, respectively. With each stage, there is progressive worsening of portal hypertension and the vasodilatory-hyperdynamic circulatory state, resulting in a progressive decrease in effective arterial blood volume and renal perfusion. Vasoconstrictors reduce portal pressure via splanchnic vasoconstriction and are used in the management of variceal hemorrhage. Intravenous (IV) albumin increases effective arterial blood volume and is used in the prevention of acute kidney injury (AKI) and death after large-volume paracentesis and in patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP). The combination of vasoconstrictors and albumin is used in the reversal of hepatorenal syndrome (HRS-AKI), the most lethal complication of cirrhosis. Because a potent vasoconstrictor, terlipressin, was recently approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, and because recent trials have explored use of IV albumin in other settings, it was considered that a best practice update would be relevant regarding the use of vasoactive drugs and IV albumin in the following 3 specific scenarios: variceal hemorrhage, ascites and SBP, and HRS. METHODS: This expert review was commissioned and approved by the American Gastroenterological Association (AGA) Institute Clinical Practice Updates Committee and the AGA Governing Board to provide timely guidance on a topic of high clinical importance to the AGA membership. It underwent internal peer review through standard procedures of Gastroenterology. These Best Practice Advice statements were drawn from a review of the published literature and from expert opinion. Some of the statements are unchanged from published guidelines because of lack of new evidence in the literature. Because systematic reviews were not performed, these Best Practice Advice statements do not carry formal ratings regarding the quality and evidence or strength of the presented considerations. Best Practice Advice Statements BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 1: Vasoactive drugs should be initiated as soon as the diagnosis of variceal hemorrhage is suspected or confirmed, preferably before diagnostic and/or therapeutic endoscopy. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 2: After initial endoscopic hemostasis, vasoactive drugs should be continued for 2-5 days to prevent early rebleeding. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 3: Octreotide is the vasoactive drug of choice in the management of variceal hemorrhage based on its safety profile. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 4: IV albumin should be administered at the time of large-volume (>5 L) paracentesis. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 5: IV albumin may be considered in patients with SBP. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 6: Albumin should not be used in patients (hospitalized or not) with cirrhosis and uncomplicated ascites. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 7: Vasoconstrictors should not be used in the management of uncomplicated ascites, after large-volume paracentesis or in patients with SBP. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 8: IV albumin is the volume expander of choice in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and ascites presenting with AKI. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 9: Vasoactive drugs (eg, terlipressin, norepinephrine, and combination of octreotide and midodrine) should be used in the treatment of HRS-AKI, but not in other forms of AKI in cirrhosis. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 10: Terlipressin is the vasoactive drug of choice in the treatment of HRS-AKI and use of concurrent albumin can be considered when accounting for patient's volume status. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 11: Terlipressin treatment does not require intensive care unit monitoring and can be administered intravenously through a peripheral line. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 12: Terlipressin use is contraindicated in patients with hypoxemia and in patients with ongoing coronary, peripheral, or mesenteric ischemia, and should be used with caution in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure grade 3. The benefits may not outweigh the risks in patients with serum creatinine >5 mg/dL and in patients listed for transplantation with a Model for End-stage Liver Disease ≥35.

A model including standardized weight improved predicting waiting list mortality in adolescent liver transplant candidates: A US national study.

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has been employed to identify adolescents eligible for liver transplantation since 2004. However, the optimal model for prioritizing adolescent candidates is uncertain. In our study, we aimed at evaluating the value of adding anthropometric variables to liver transplantation allocation models among adolescents. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network Standard Transplant Analysis and Research to identify adolescent patients registered on the liver transplant waiting list in the United States between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2022. Adolescents (12-17 y) who were listed for their first liver transplantation were included. We evaluated the performance of different models including pediatric end-stage liver disease with Na and creatinine, MELD, and MELD 3.0. Furthermore, we evaluated whether adding anthropometric variables ( z -score for weight and height) would improve the models' performance for our primary outcome (mortality at 90 days after listing). We identified 1421 eligible adolescent patients. Adding a z -score of weight (MELD-TEEN) improved the performance and discrimination of the MELD score. The final model including weight z -score (MELD-TEEN) had better discriminative power compared to MELD 3.0 and pediatric end-stage liver disease with Na and creatinine in the overall cohort and in different age groups (ages 12-14 and 15-17). MELD-TEEN could improve the accuracy of allocation of liver transplants among adolescents by incorporating the weight z -score compared to MELD 3.0 and pediatric end-stage liver disease with Na and creatinine.

A chair-stand time of greater than 15 seconds is associated with an increased risk of death and hospitalization in cirrhosis.

Background: Frailty is a clinical state of increased vulnerability and is common in patients with cirrhosis. The liver frailty index (LFI) is a validated tool to evaluate frailty in cirrhosis, comprising of grip strength, chair stands, and balance tests. The chair-stand test is an easy to conduct frailty subcomponent that does not require specialized equipment and may be valuable to predict adverse clinical outcomes in cirrhosis. The objective of this study was to determine if the chair-stand test is an independent predictor of mortality and hospitalization in cirrhosis. Methods: A retrospective review of 787 patients with cirrhosis was conducted. Chair-stand times were collected at baseline in person and divided into three groups: <10 seconds (n = 276), 10-15 seconds (n = 290), and >15 seconds (n = 221). Fine-Gray proportional hazards regression models were used to evaluate the association between chair-stand times and the outcomes of mortality and non-elective hospitalization. Results: The hazard of mortality (HR 3.21, 95% CI 2.16%-4.78%, p <0.001) and non-elective hospitalization (HR 2.24, 95% CI 1.73%-2.91%, p <0.001) was increased in group 3 in comparison to group 1. A chair-stand test time >15 seconds had increased all-cause mortality (HR 2.78, 95% CI 2.01%-3.83%, p <0.001) and non-elective hospitalizations (HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.48%-2.29%, p <0.001) compared to <15 seconds. Conclusions: A chair-stand test time of >15 seconds is independently associated with mortality and non-elective hospitalizations. This test holds promise as a rapid prognostication tool in cirrhosis. Future work will include external validation and virtual assessment in this population.

Novel prognostic biomarkers in decompensated cirrhosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with decompensated cirrhosis experience high mortality rates. Current prognostic scores, including the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), may underperform in settings other than in those they were initially developed. Novel biomarkers have been proposed to improve prognostication accuracy and even to predict development of complications. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis on novel urine and blood biomarkers and their ability to predict 90-day mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Secondary outcomes included 28-day and 1-year mortality, and development of acute-on-chronic liver failure, acute kidney injury and other complications. To overcome differences in units, temporal changes in assays and reporting heterogeneity, we used the ratio of means (RoM) as measure of association for assessing strength in predicting outcomes. An RoM>1 implies that the mean biomarker level is higher in those that develop the outcome than in those that do not. RESULTS: Of 6629 unique references, 103 were included, reporting on 29 different biomarkers, with a total of 31 362 biomarker patients. Most studies were prospective cohorts of hospitalised patients (median Child-Pugh-Turcotte score of 9 and MELD score of 18). The pooled 90-day mortality rate was 0.27 (95% CI 0.24 to 0.29). The RoM for predicting 90-day mortality was highest for interleukin 6 (IL-6) (2.56, 95% CI 2.39 to 2.74), followed by urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL) (2.42, 95% CI 2.20 to 2.66) and copeptin (2.33, 95% CI 2.17 to 2.50). These RoMs were all higher than for MELD (1.44, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.46). CONCLUSION: Novel biomarkers, including IL-6, uNGAL and copeptin, can probably improve prognostication of patients with decompensated cirrhosis compared with MELD alone.

Noninvasive assessment of hepatic decompensation.

Noninvasive tests (NITs) are used in all aspects of liver disease management. Their most prominent break-through since the millennium has been in advancing early detection of liver fibrosis, but their use is not limited to this. In contrast to the symptom-driven assessment of decompensation in patients with cirrhosis, NITs provide not only opportunities for earlier diagnoses but also accurate prognostication, targeted treatment decisions, and a means of monitoring disease. NITs can inform disease management and decision-making based on validated cutoffs and standardized interpretations as a valuable supplement to clinical acumen. The Baveno VI and VII consensus meetings resulted in tangible improvements to pathways of care for patients with compensated and decompensated advanced chronic liver disease, including the combination of platelet count and transient elastography to diagnose clinically significant portal hypertension. Furthermore, circulating NITs will play increasingly important roles in assessing the response to interventions against ascites, variceal bleeding, HE, acute kidney injury, and infections. However, due to NITs' wide availability, there is a risk of inaccurate use, leading to a waste of resources and flawed decisions. In this review, we describe the uses and pitfalls of NITs for hepatic decompensation, from risk stratification in primary care to treatment decisions in outpatient clinics, as well as for the in-hospital management of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure. We summarize which NITs to use when, for what indications, and how to maximize the potential of NITs for improved patient management.

Handgrip strength and risk of malnutrition are associated with an increased risk of hospitalizations in inflammatory bowel disease patients.

Background: In patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), frailty is independently associated with mortality and morbidity. Objectives: This study aimed to extend this work to determine the association between the clinical frailty scale (CFS), handgrip strength (HGS), and malnutrition with IBD-related hospitalizations and surgeries. Design: IBD patients ⩾18 years of age were prospectively enrolled from two ambulatory care clinics in Alberta, Canada. Methods: Frailty was defined as a CFS score ⩾4, dynapenia as HGS < 16 kg for females and <27 kg for males, malnutrition using the subjective global assessment (SGA), and the risk of malnutrition using either the abridged patient-generated SGA (abPG-SGA), or the Saskatchewan Inflammatory Bowel Disease Nutrition Risk Tool (SaskIBD-NRT). Logarithm relative hazard graphs and multivariable logistic regression models adjusting for relevant confounders were constructed. Results: One hundred sixty-one patients (35% ulcerative colitis, 65% Crohn's disease) with a mean age of 42.2 (±15.9) years were followed over a mean period of 43.9 (±10.1) months. Twenty-seven patients were hospitalized, and 13 patients underwent IBD-related surgeries following baseline. While the CFS (aHR 1.34; p = 0.61) and SGA (aHR 0.81; p = 0.69) did not independently predict IBD-related hospitalizations, decreased HGS (aHR 3.96; p = 0.03), increased abPG-SGA score (aHR 1.07; p = 0.03) and a SaskIBD-NRT ⩾ 5 (aHR 4.49; p = 0.02) did. No variable was independently associated with IBD-related surgeries. Conclusion: HGS, the abPG-SGA, and the SaskIBD-NRT were independently associated with an increased risk of IBD-related hospitalizations. Future studies should aim to validate other frailty assessments in the IBD population in order to better tailor care for all IBD patients.

Point-of-Care Noninvasive Prediction of Liver-Related Events in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Individual risk prediction of liver-related events (LRE) is needed for clinical assessment of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)/nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) patients. We aimed to provide point-of-care validated liver stiffness measurement (LSM)-based risk prediction models for the development of LRE in patients with NAFLD, focusing on selecting patients for clinical trials at risk of clinical events. METHODS: Two large multicenter cohorts were evaluated, 2638 NAFLD patients covering all LSM values as the derivation cohort and 679 more advanced patients as the validation cohort. We used Cox regression to develop and validate risk prediction models based on LSM alone, and the ANTICIPATE and ANTICIPATE-NASH models for clinically significant portal hypertension. The main outcome of the study was the rate of LRE in the first 3 years after initial assessment. RESULTS: The 3 predictive models had similar performance in the derivation cohort with a very high discriminative value (c-statistic, 0.87-0.91). In the validation cohort, the LSM-LRE alone model had a significant inferior discrimination (c-statistic, 0.75) compared with the other 2 models, whereas the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model (0.81) was significantly better than the ANTICIPATE-LRE model (0.79). In addition, the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model presented very good calibration in the validation cohort (integrated calibration index, 0.016), and was better than the ANTICIPATE-LRE model. CONCLUSIONS: The ANTICIPATE-LRE models, and especially the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model, could be valuable validated clinical tools to individually assess the risk of LRE at 3 years in patients with NAFLD/NASH.